NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

1. Mast hindcasts reveal pervasive effects of extreme drought on a foundational conifer species NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Andreas P. Wion | Ian S. Pearse ... - 《The New Phytologist》 - 2025,246(2) - 450～460 - 共11页

摘要：Predicting seed production is challenging | because many plants produce highly variable crops among | years (i.e. masting), but doing so can inform forest | management, conservation, and our understanding of | ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. Weevaluated

关键词： ecological forecasting | megadrought | Pinus edulis | seed production | vapor pressure deficit

2. Can a 12-km GFS Model Simulate the Observed Relationship between Cloud Optical Properties and Extreme Rainfall of Indian Summer Monsoon? NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Goswami, Tanmoy | Mukhopadhyay, Partha...... - 《Weather and forecasting》 - 2025,40(1) - 79～91 - 共13页

摘要：The increase in the frequency of extreme | precipitation in different parts of the world is well | documented and a cause for concern in terms of global | climate change. Although clouds are the only source of | precipitation, there is a lack of knowledge about the type of

关键词： Forecasting | Hindcasts | Numerical weather prediction/forecasting | Short-range prediction

3. Differential Role of External and Internal Forcing in the Prediction of Boreal Summer and Fall Season Indian Ocean SST Variability in ECMWF SEAS5 NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Pillai, Prasanth A. | Kiran, V. G.... - 《International Journal of Climatology》 - 2025,45(6) - n/a～n/a - 共16页

摘要： hindcasts. The primary mode of TIO SST during JJA (EOF1 | by I-month (May IC) hindcasts* and IOD has a* | relationship. These hindcasts* have stronger internal* | hindcasts have a skill of more than a season for SON IOD | The present study analyses the boreal summer

关键词： ENSO | Indian Ocean basin mode | Indian Ocean dipole | internal variability | IOD skill | seasonal prediction model

4. How Do Model Biases Affect Large-Scale Teleconnections That Control Southwest US Precipitation? Part II: Seasonal Models NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Peings, Y. | Dong, C.... - 《Journal of Climate》 - 2025,38(1) - 423～444 - 共22页

摘要： hindcasts from seasonal prediction systems. We identify | predicted in the hindcasts, and model perturbation | We explore the skill in predicting southwest | United States (SWUS) October-March precipitation and | associated large-scale teleconnections in an ensemble of

关键词： Atmospheric circulation | Teleconnections | Rainfall | Seasonal forecasting | General circulation models | Interannual variability

5. Evaluating the performance of a system model in predicting zooplankton dynamics: Insights from the Bering Sea ecosystem NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Genoa Sullaway | Curry J. Cunningham ... - 《Fisheries Oceanography》 - 2025,34(1) - 共17页

摘要： hindcasts for the Bering Sea. In the Bering Sea | of current BESTNPZ hindcasts* should be tempered by* | Abstract Understanding how ecosystem change | influences fishery resources through trophic pathways is a | key tenet of ecosystem‐based fishery management

关键词： ecosystem‐based fishery management | model evaluation | NPZ model | species distribution model | systems model | zooplankton

6. Climate driven response of the Iceland‐East Greenland‐Jan Mayen capelin distribution NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Warsha Singh | Kristinn Guðnason ... - 《Fisheries Oceanography》 - 2025,34(1) - 共15页

摘要： hindcasts (pre‐shift years 1993–2002) and nowcasts (post | Abstract Climate change is altering the | distribution of marine organisms worldwide. This may, in turn | , affect the overall structure and functioning of | ecosystems, sometimes leading to low productive regimes

关键词： capelin | feeding season | Iceland‐East Greenland‐Jan Mayen | ocean climate | spatial distributional shift | spawning season | species distribution models

7. Characteristics and subseasonal prediction of four types of cold waves in China NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Qing, Yingping | Wu, Jiye ... - 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》 - 2025,156(4) - 1.1～1.17 - 共17页

摘要： types of cold waves are assessed using the hindcasts | Cold waves are the most frequent winter | disaster in China. Using Rotated Empirical Orthogonal | Function (REOF) analysis, we categorize winter cold waves | in China during 1983-2022 into four types based on

关键词： WINTER | VARIABILITY | ROTATION | HEIGHT | REGION

8. Upgrade of the Chilean Wave Atlas database NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Araya, Sebastian Oma... | Aguirre, Catalina ... - 《Ocean modelling》 - 2025,193 - 共12页

摘要： performance compared to other freely available hindcasts. | The Chilean Wave Atlas (AOC1), a reliable | hindcast developed in 2017 for the academic and | engineering community, diminished its usefulness due to the | obsolescence of wind data provided by ERA-Interim reanalysis

关键词： Wave hindcast | Calibration and validation | Satellite significant wave height | Wave buoys observations | Chile | WAVEWATCH III

9. Seasonal prediction and potential predictability of the northern tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in current coupled climate models NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Liu, Ao | Zuo, Jinqing ... - 《Climate dynamics》 - 2025,63(4) - 1.1～1.21 - 共21页

摘要： hindcasts from 18 operational seasonal forecast systems | The northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) pattern | , a key mode of interannual sea surface temperature | (SST) variability in the tropical Atlantic | , significantly influences climate variability within the region

关键词： Northern tropical Atlantic | Sea surface temperature | Seasonal prediction | Potential predictability | Climate models | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE | INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY | EL-NINO | OCEAN | OSCILLATION...

10. Extreme Rainfall Risk in Hurricane Ida's Extratropical Stage: An Analysis with Convection-Permitting Ensemble Hindcasts NSTL国家科技图书文献中心

Menemenlis, Sofia | Vecchi, Gabriel A.... - 《Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences》 - 2024,81(7) - 1165～1179 - 共15页

摘要： perturbed initial condition hindcasts* with the Tropical* | hindcasts } simulations of a past weather event | The extratropical stage of Hurricane Ida (2021 | ) brought extreme subdaily rainfall and devastating fl | ooding to parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey

关键词： Atmosphere | Hydrometeorology | Ensembles | Hindcasts | Numerical weather prediction/forecasting | ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY | TROPICAL CYCLONES | SUPERCELLS | TRANSITION | ATLANTIC...

摘要：Predicting seed production is challenging | because many plants produce highly variable crops among | years (i.e. masting), but doing so can inform forest | management, conservation, and our understanding of | ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. Weevaluated

关键词： ecological forecasting | megadrought | Pinus edulis | seed production | vapor pressure deficit

摘要：The increase in the frequency of extreme | precipitation in different parts of the world is well | documented and a cause for concern in terms of global | climate change. Although clouds are the only source of | precipitation, there is a lack of knowledge about the type of

关键词： Forecasting | Hindcasts | Numerical weather prediction/forecasting | Short-range prediction

摘要： hindcasts. The primary mode of TIO SST during JJA (EOF1 | by I-month (May IC) hindcasts and IOD has a | relationship. These hindcasts have stronger internal | hindcasts have a skill of more than a season for SON IOD | The present study analyses the boreal summer

关键词： ENSO | Indian Ocean basin mode | Indian Ocean dipole | internal variability | IOD skill | seasonal prediction model

摘要： hindcasts from seasonal prediction systems. We identify | predicted in the hindcasts, and model perturbation | We explore the skill in predicting southwest | United States (SWUS) October-March precipitation and | associated large-scale teleconnections in an ensemble of

关键词： Atmospheric circulation | Teleconnections | Rainfall | Seasonal forecasting | General circulation models | Interannual variability

摘要： hindcasts for the Bering Sea. In the Bering Sea | of current BESTNPZ hindcasts should be tempered by | Abstract Understanding how ecosystem change | influences fishery resources through trophic pathways is a | key tenet of ecosystem‐based fishery management

关键词： ecosystem‐based fishery management | model evaluation | NPZ model | species distribution model | systems model | zooplankton

摘要： hindcasts (pre‐shift years 1993–2002) and nowcasts (post | Abstract Climate change is altering the | distribution of marine organisms worldwide. This may, in turn | , affect the overall structure and functioning of | ecosystems, sometimes leading to low productive regimes

关键词： capelin | feeding season | Iceland‐East Greenland‐Jan Mayen | ocean climate | spatial distributional shift | spawning season | species distribution models

摘要： types of cold waves are assessed using the hindcasts | Cold waves are the most frequent winter | disaster in China. Using Rotated Empirical Orthogonal | Function (REOF) analysis, we categorize winter cold waves | in China during 1983-2022 into four types based on

关键词： WINTER | VARIABILITY | ROTATION | HEIGHT | REGION

摘要： performance compared to other freely available hindcasts. | The Chilean Wave Atlas (AOC1), a reliable | hindcast developed in 2017 for the academic and | engineering community, diminished its usefulness due to the | obsolescence of wind data provided by ERA-Interim reanalysis

关键词： Wave hindcast | Calibration and validation | Satellite significant wave height | Wave buoys observations | Chile | WAVEWATCH III

摘要： hindcasts from 18 operational seasonal forecast systems | The northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) pattern | , a key mode of interannual sea surface temperature | (SST) variability in the tropical Atlantic | , significantly influences climate variability within the region

关键词： Northern tropical Atlantic | Sea surface temperature | Seasonal prediction | Potential predictability | Climate models | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE | INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY | EL-NINO | OCEAN | OSCILLATION...

摘要： perturbed initial condition hindcasts with the Tropical | hindcasts } simulations of a past weather event | The extratropical stage of Hurricane Ida (2021 | ) brought extreme subdaily rainfall and devastating fl | ooding to parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey

关键词： Atmosphere | Hydrometeorology | Ensembles | Hindcasts | Numerical weather prediction/forecasting | ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTABILITY | TROPICAL CYCLONES | SUPERCELLS | TRANSITION | ATLANTIC...

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摘要： hindcasts. The primary mode of TIO SST during JJA (EOF1 | by I-month (May IC) hindcasts* and IOD has a* | relationship. These hindcasts* have stronger internal* | hindcasts have a skill of more than a season for SON IOD | The present study analyses the boreal summer

摘要： hindcasts for the Bering Sea. In the Bering Sea | of current BESTNPZ hindcasts* should be tempered by* | Abstract Understanding how ecosystem change | influences fishery resources through trophic pathways is a | key tenet of ecosystem‐based fishery management

摘要： perturbed initial condition hindcasts* with the Tropical* | hindcasts } simulations of a past weather event | The extratropical stage of Hurricane Ida (2021 | ) brought extreme subdaily rainfall and devastating fl | ooding to parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey